EU member states are tightening border controls and introducing security checks to limit the unrestricted inflow of refugees. Analysis by IHS:
- Cargo and transport disruption risks are currently most severe in Calais, but are likely to expand to a wider geographical area in the three-month outlook.
- EU member states are tightening border controls and introducing security checks to limit the unrestricted inflow of migrants.
- EU member states remain divided over a concerted approach to the record high influx of migrants into Europe, after failing to reach an agreement at a summit in June.
Cargo and transport disruption risks are currently most severe in Calais, but are likely to expand to a wider geographical area in the three-month outlook. Improved security measures in Calais will drive refugees to attempt to reach the United Kingdom via other ports where security is not as high. Refugees are also likely to attempt to board trucks at filling stations and motorway services in northern France and Belgium. Companies transporting pharmaceuticals and foodstuffs are likely to suffer the greatest financial losses, as all stock must be written off in the event of a break-in, due to the risk of contamination. Intra-EU border crossings constitute another hot-spot for infrastructure and cargo disruption.
Protest risks will rise in several EU member states. There is an elevated risk of fighting between migrants and police forces as well as between different groups of migrants. Likely hotspots will continue to be makeshift camps, such as those in Calais, transport hubs, such as train stations in and around Budapest, and first-entry points to the EU, such as the Greek islands of Kos and Lesbos. It is also likely that major regional transport hubs such as Munich and Milan as well as smaller border towns across the EU will be increasingly affected. It is also likely that anti-immigration protests in countries including Germany or Slovakia will turn violent and result in fighting between protestors and the police or pro- and anti-immigration supporters. Property damage and arson are increasingly likely at asylum shelters across Europe.
EU member states are tightening border controls and introducing security checks to limit the unrestricted inflow of migrants. The Hungarian government will complete the installation of a 100-mile-long fence along the border with Serbia by November. Governments across the EU are also increasing pressure on private-sector cargo companies to ensure their vehicles have appropriate security measures, with penalties being applied when drivers are deemed to have carried out improper checks. Germany has suspended the Dublin Regulation to allow it to welcome Syrian refugees, irrespective of the EU country they first entered, and other EU states including France, Greece, and Italy are likely to follow suit in the coming months. A temporary suspension of passport-free travel in the Schengen area is also increasingly likely.
EU member states remain divided over a concerted approach to the record high influx of migrants into Europe, after failing to reach an agreement at a summit in June. Some countries including France, Germany, and Italy strongly support a mandatory quota for all EU member states to accommodate refugees and asylum seekers across the EU, while other member states including Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and the UK are opposed to such an initiative. Public and political pressure on national governments is likely to grow, however, moving forward a comprehensive reform of the EU’s current asylum policy, which was originally envisaged to be completed by 2016. The European Commission is also likely to increase pressure on member states by launching further infringement procedures and cutting EU subsidies for countries that fail to comply with the EU’s policy approach to migration.