Facebook, currently having a population of 750 million, is likely to be lose sheen after 10-15 years.
Mediastow, a leading media monitoring, analysis, and evaluation agency in the Middle East, reported that Facebook could face a similar death like that of MySpace and Geocities.
Mediastow is the leading expert media monitoring, analysis and evaluation agency in the Middle East. They provide most comprehensive news monitoring service for print, broadcast, Internet and social media.
According Mo Elzubeir, Founder & Managing Director of Mediastow, says: “When it comes to the Internet, everything is cyclical.? He cited two examples of how a strong player can quickly fade into oblivion?MySpace and Geocities.
According to data service of Facebook, it has already lost 6 million users in USA. It is a similar situation in Canada, an 8% drop to reach to 16.6 million population. Similarly, U.K., Norway, and Russia also lost 100,000 each.
However, the total Facebook population still rose by 1.7%, mainly from countries like Brazil and Mexico where the service got its popularity only later. Huge drop in popularity from regions where Facebook became popular is no good news.
This suggests a saturation point where the service gets burned out. Facebook will continue its stride, but from new countries that it starts the services. Otherwise stated, the growth is powered by the periphery of the market.
Newer entrants, such as Tumblr, Twitter, and Instagram are offering better subsets than Facebook and are offering better services. This can avert users from Facebook account.
The privacy concerns and content ownership are other issues that impair Facebook.
GeoCities was originally founded as Beverly Hills Internet (BHI) in late 1994. In its original form, the site allowed users to develop free home pages with a “city” in which to place their web pages. The “cities” were named after real cities or regions according to their content.
In January, Yahoo! purchased GeoCities for $3.57 billion in stock. Later there was protest from users about the terms of services. Despite protests, Yahoo! invested heavily in the services. By June 1997, GeoCities became? the fifth most popular site on the Web, and by October of that year the company signed up its millionth Homesteader.
Ten years later Yahoo! announced that it would shut down the United States GeoCities service. There were at least 38 million user-built pages on GeoCities before it was shut down.
GeoCities is one among other services discontinued by Yahoo, such as Farechase, Launchcast, My Web, Audio Search, Pets, Live, Kickstart, Briefcase, and Yahoo! for Teachers.
In 2005, News Corp bought MySpace for $560 million dollars and many thought the price was too low. Although MySpace continued to be profitable for some time, it was loosing users quickly.
The main reason attributed was that the site had a poor design, which was not easy to navigate and appeared rather juvenile. It did not look like a website where professionals and college graduates would go to network. The quality of information, posts, and users gradually declined and later users just ran into Facebook, which had a better appeal then.
Eventually one has to assume that Facebook will hit that saturation point. The golden age is about to be over and can never remain the same as it is today.
One has to wait and see, whether Facebook?s integration with Skype will bring back the charm it is loosing.
Elzubeir also added: “Currently, there is already a debate on whether Facebook is bleeding users from its launch countries in North America. While it is possible to blame seasonality or even saturation, I believe there are other more important factors at play here.”
Sources: Zawya, twentyfoursevennews.com, Wikipedia, .eduGuru